Two the Point — Polls, Policies and Prices

As election uncertainty and China’s stimulus plans create short-term noise in the markets, recent economic data continues to support a steady, albeit slower, growth outlook. Here’s what you need to know this week:

• Durable Goods Orders (September): Decreased -0.8% month-over-month, with prior data also revised lower, suggesting temporary weakness in capital spending.
• Consumer Spending: Despite pressures in lower-income segments, consumer spending remains solid, providing an important cushion for the broader economy.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: Increased to 4.27%, driven by stronger economic data, increased Treasury borrowing, and election-related positioning. Longer-term dynamics could lead to lower yields in 2025.
• Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDP Estimate: Tracking at around 2.8%, indicating solid momentum despite ongoing uncertainties.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: A 0.25% rate cut is anticipated at the November meeting, providing additional support as central banks globally move toward easing.