The labor market continues to cool in a measured way, with job openings, quits, and wage growth data pointing to a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp deterioration. Meanwhile, equity markets remain volatile, but credit spreads suggest the recent pullback may be more about sentiment than fundamentals.
Key Insights
- Labor Market: Job openings rose to 7.74 million, exceeding expectations but remaining 728,000 lower than a year ago.
- Quits Rate & Wage Growth: The quits rate edged up to 2.1%, signaling continued worker confidence, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM and 4.0% YoY, signaling modest moderation.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Markets have shifted to pricing in two to three rate cuts in 2025, with the upcoming March 18th-19th FOMC meeting likely to focus on labor market risks.
- Market Selloff & Credit Stability: Equities are down ~10% since mid-February, but credit spreads have remained steady, historically interpreted as a sign of overreaction rather than systemic stress.
Recent Articles
-
Two the Point — Caution in the Air: What’s Next?
In our weekly video series we highlight important observations regarding the economy and the financial market.
-
The Difference Financial Planning Can Make
Financial planning can have many definitions. It can relate to your business, your finances, or your family in general. This…
-
Understanding Interest Rates in the U.S. and How They Affect Deposits, Lending, and Mortgages
Interest rates play a pivotal role in the U.S. economy, influencing everything from consumer spending to business investments. These rates…