Two the Point — Jobs, JOLTS, and the Holiday Hustle

The U.S. labor market continues to show resilience, with recent data suggesting steady job growth, wage gains, and improving sentiment. Manufacturing and consumer activity also offer reasons for cautious optimism as we approach 2025.

Key Insights:

• Labor Market Strength: Job openings rose by 372,000 in October to 7.74 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Layoffs decreased (-169,000), and quits increased (+228,000), signaling worker confidence in finding better opportunities.
• Wage Gains: Median annual pay for job-stayers rose by 4.8% year-over-year, with stronger gains for job-changers (+7.2%), reflecting continued wage pressures across sectors.
• Manufacturing Recovery?: While the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory at 48.4%, new orders returned to expansionary levels (50.4%) in November, hinting at a potential recovery in goods production.
• Consumer Spending: Retail sales over Thanksgiving weekend grew 3.4% year-over-year, highlighting strong spending trends, especially among higher-income households. The consumer sector continues to serve as a critical engine for economic growth.
• Looking Ahead: With recent resilience across multiple indicators, this week’s labor market updates and economic reports should provide further clarity on the trajectory of growth heading into 2025. While challenges abroad remain, the U.S. outlook continues to be constructive.