Two the Point — Revised and Resilient: A Stronger U.S. Economy

Recent economic data continues to highlight the resilience of the U.S. economy, driven by strong labor market conditions and a positive revision to personal savings. The backdrop suggests the economy remains on track for a soft landing, with potential for near-term volatility as markets digest these mixed signals.

• Nonfarm Payrolls: Rose by a solid +254,000 in September, with private payrolls up +223,000, supported by health and education sectors.
• Upward Revisions: Previous payroll data was revised higher by +72,000, strengthening the overall labor market picture.
• Personal Savings Rate: Revised significantly higher for Q2 2024, driven by higher wages, bolstering consumer resilience and spending capacity.
• GDI vs. GDP: GDI was revised upward to 3.4% from 1.3% for Q2 2024, closing the gap with GDP, and signaling stronger underlying economic activity than initially expected.
• Manufacturing Sector: Continues to contract, but no sharp declines signaling immediate concern.
• Overall Outlook: The U.S. economy remains on a solid footing, supported by strong consumer fundamentals and labor market conditions, positioning itself for a soft landing despite potential near-term market volatility.