The current market landscape presents high valuations primarily driven by the Mega-Cap-8, but excluding these, the broader market shows more reasonable valuations, supported by historical context and recent economic indicators suggesting a normalized labor market.
Key Insights:
- Valuations:
- The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio stands at 20.6, influenced by the Mega-Cap-8 (Magnificent-7 plus Netflix) with a forward P/E of 30.0.
- Excluding the Mega-Cap-8, the forward P/E for the remaining S&P 492 companies is a more moderate 18.5.
- Mid-Caps (S&P 400) and Small-Caps (S&P 600) offer more attractive valuations, with forward P/E ratios of 15.7 and 15.4, respectively.
- Historical Context:
- The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 since 1929 is 15.8, but the index has traded within half a point of this average on less than 8% of all trading days, highlighting the rarity of this benchmark.
- Market Rotation:
- Since July 11, Mid-Caps and Small-Caps have outperformed Large-Caps following June’s lower-than-expected CPI reading, bolstering expectations for a September Fed rate cut.
- Labor Market Indicators:
- Indicators suggest a normalizing labor market, with a decline in job availability perception and cooling wage growth, aligning with the Fed’s efforts to control inflation.
- Outlook:
- We anticipate compensation growth to moderate further in the second half of the year, providing the Fed with clearer data to make informed decisions regarding rate adjustments.
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